Missing Middle

In December 2019, Arlington County began a Missing Middle Housing Study (MMHS) and on Apriil 28, 2022, staff released a Phase Two framework report recommending the County Board approve a countywide change from single to multi-family zoning, allowing up to 8-plexes on larger lots and reducing tree canopy coverage to as little as 10% (from 20% or more). Missing Middle (MM) was first developed by Opticos Design in 2010 to promote housing types between single family homes and mid- to high-rise multi-family units, but Arlington will allow these housing types in all areas, essentially transitioning the entire county to multi-family zoning and multifamily housing. This will raise land values, increase displacement of residents who are not "keeping up" with rising incomes, and benef existing property owners and wealthy newcomers at the expense of many lower and middle-class residents.
ASF is pressing the county to first address how new zoning would shape fiscal, environmental and diversity and to fully define the population growth contained in the Missing Middle Housing Study Phase Two report issued April 28, 2022. Staff intends to brief the Board in a July work session on its recommendations, then commence Phase 3 where it will draft ordinances to consolidate irrevocable and expansive changes. We encourage you to fill out the online feedback form below, and to contact countyboard@arlingtonva.us, echoing concerns expressed by ASF and the Arlington Civic Federation, whose request for more time for community input has been rejected by the Board. See also messages from four Civic Associations in west Arlington, from Donaldson Run, and the Glencarlyn Civic Association President.
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Quick Links:
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Missing Middle Housing Study Feedback Form open til May 27, 2022
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County Board Reply and Civic Federation Emergency Request to Extend Feedback Period for Missing Middle Study Phase Two, May 12, 2022
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Glencarlyn Civic Association email, May 12, 2022
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Arlington County Missing Middle Housing Study, Expanding Housing Choice, Phase Two Analysis and Draft Framework, April 28, 2022
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Arlington County Consultant Analysis of Missing Middle Housing Alternatives, April 28 2022
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Blanket Upzoning A Blunt Instrument Won't Solve Affordable Housing Crisis, Dr. Michael Storper, March 15, 2019
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ASF Factsheet: Myths vs. Reality, April 2021, ASF responds to Missing Middle advocates
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Missing Middle Housing is High End Housing, Peter Rousselot, ARLNow, March 10, 2021
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Spending Growth and Real Estate Taxes, Jon Huntley, Arlington Analytics, March 2021
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ASF Response to Arlington County on its MM Housing Survey Dec 2020
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The Phase 2 Missing Middle report projects up-zoning for all single-family areas that do not already permit it, from duplexes up to 8-plexes, and assumes the largest of these will be limited to the largest lots (however, there appear to be no guards against lot consolidation in smaller-lot areas, which would change that dynamic). Essentially, the county is dispensing with the commitment it made when embarking on Metro construction in 1979 that it would preserve single-family areas as a counterbalance to the extreme density that the Metro corridors would provide. Extreme density will become the new default. While builders will still be able to construct single-family homes, the only check on 100% urbanizaton is whether our labor market will continue to support rapid expansions of luxury high-end housing.
The Phase 2 report acknowledges but dodges key concerns of ASF, i.e. gentrification, inadequate budgeting for new infrastructure, and the loss of mature trees and pervious surface (safeguards against flooding and urban heat islands). While county staff projects only 20 Missing Middle "teardowns" of single family homes (on top of teardowns already occurring for large single-family homes), ASF counters that:
-- the increased yield will accelerate sales by residents who want to realize greater profit or who cannot afford higher taxes that will come with those new assessments;
-- this in turn increases the likelihood of lot consolidations, that will allow EVEN greater lot coverage for single family homes if built, and make it more likely that the Missing Middle six-plexes and 8-plexes will begin to fill in former single family areas;
-- the increased yield from existing residential lots as their development potential rises will drive out existing residents who fall below the median income of $108,00 projected for these new units.
Added density delivers the most value to the developer/current owner and to those who develop the land. It makes things more difficult for everyone else. Current property owners will profit, but those on fixed incomes will find higher taxes a challenge. Renters will suffer. New MM home mortgages, as evidenced by units currently being built where zoning allows, are affordable to average white household incomes, but exceed average household incomes for African-Americans, Latinos, seniors, new immigrants, the disabled. Local supporters of MM in Arlington are essentially acceding to the "voluntary displacement" of many current residents -- to accommodate wealthier in-migrants. This is precisely the effect of such up-zoning predicted by UCLA Professor Michael Storper.
If public funds for truly affordable housing (households at 60% of area median income (AMI) and below) do not keep pace with up-zoning inflation, the circle of displacement widens. MM quadplexes under construction in Arlington are selling in the $800,000's, and have not promoted diversity. Noted local economists at Arlington Analytics produced a June 2020 analysis of new duplexes showing they would be affordable in only a handful of areas, even to households earning $120,000/year (100% of AMI). ASF also questions the "major housing crisis for mid-level earners" battle cry that has accompanied Arlington's MM campaign. Zillow in January 2021 showed 335 homes/townhomes for sale in Arlington under $800,000 out of 536 total units, showing relatively robust supply. The Missing Middle effort -- like an October 2020 failed effort to change affordable homeownership programs -- seems to favor higher income households at the expense of lower income groups. ASF believes the County is subordinating true equity as part of a larger focus on helping middle-class newcomers (who have been white and Asian). It may offer some element of diversity but it will displace many Arlingtonians who are not keeping pace with rising incomes (African-Americans, Latnos, seniors, immigrants who already live here).
ASF is concerned that the county's MM plans, as with its other development plans -- including extensive new density along Langston Boulevard, is untethered from fiscal reality. See the January 2021 ARLNow article by Peter Rousselot (ASF member) for more information on the tax implications of growth. Arlington in 2018 committed to the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments that it would add residents equal to the combined populations of Charlottesville and Culpeper, approximately 65,000. But five years on, the County has not budgeted for any added facilities such as schools or parks for these new residents. In February 2022, the County Board approved a new sector plan for Pentagon City that will add 12,000 new residents to the 8,000 now living in that area over the next 40 years -- almost equal to the entire population of Falls Church -- without budgeting funds or public space to add adequate infrastructure. The County says it also won't need to budget for infrastructure or public services as it looks at densifying the Langston Boulevard Corridor. And, no surprise, the April 28 Missing Middle study and corresponding analysis projects no new schools or facilities are needed despite up-zoning all remaining single-family areas that do allow new multifamily projects currently. The claim is not credible.
May 27 is just around the corner, most residents are still unaware of the looming change. County staff has indicated it is not providing further community outreach. Please write to the county board, sign up to speak at the May 14 board meeting, speak to a board member at Open Door Mondays, and ask ASF for a briefing. Request a delay in new zoning and meaningul analysis of the new zoning's costs and benefits, espeically demographic, environmental, and fiscal.
Resources:
Arlington County Documents/Resources
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Missing Middle Housing Study: Expanding Housing Choice, April 28, 2022
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Arl Co Expanding Housing Choice The Missing Middle Housing Study Phase One Report, November 2022
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County Manager Letter to the Board on Work of Joint Facilities Advisory Commission, November 12, 2020
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Housing Arlington Missing Middle Survey for County Residents, open til December 21, 2020
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Housing Arlington/Alliance for Housing Solutions Staff Briefing on Missing Middle, Sep 2, 2020
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Arl Co Board Reply to ASF Letter of July 28, 2020 re Missing Middle and Community Engagement
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Arl Co Missing Middle Bulletin #5 - Missing Middle Housing Study in Context
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Arl Co Missing Middle Bulletin #4 - Arlington's Land Use Policy and Zoning
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Arl Co Missing Middle Bulletin #3 - Existing HousingChoices
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Arl Co Missing Middle Bulletin #2 - Housing Market Pressures
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Arl Co Missing Middle Bulletin #1 - Stakeholder Analysis, June 2020
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Arl Co Missing Middle Draft Scope of Work - January 15, 2020
ASF Documents
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ASF Letter to Joint Facilities Advisory Commission, March 31, 2022 re draft MM survey
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ASF Letter to Arlington County Board on MM Phase I, January 13, 2022
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ASF responses to the county's typology of housing study here.
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ASF Letter to Planning Commission on MM Phase I, November 1, 2021
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ASF Letter to Forestry and Nat. Resources Commission on MM Phase I, October 28, 2021
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ASF Letter to Joint Facilities Advisory Commission on MM Phase I, October 26, 2021
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ASF Letter to Housing Commission on MM Phase I, October 7, 2021
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ASF Response to Arlington County MM Housing Typology Survey, June 2, 2021
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ASF Letter to County Board Regarding Lack of Objectivity of MM Housing Survey, January 5, 2021
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ASF Response to Arlington County on its MM Housing Survey Dec 2020
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Concerns at the Launch of Missing Middle Housing Initiative, ASF slide presentation at Arlington County Board Meeting, Sep 12, 2020
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ASF Updated Article for Civic Association Newsletters - Aug 2020
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ASF Letter to County Board Seeking Working Group on Missing Middle, July 28, 2020
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ASF Summary of Missing Middle Affordability Analysis - July 2020
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ASF Article for Civic Association Newsletters - April 2020
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ASF Letter to County Board Requesting Halt to Missing Middle Process - 3 April 2020
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Arlington Areas with Multi-Family Housing: Click to view map of existing multi-family dwellings
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ASF Questions on Arlington’s “Missing Middle” Proposal - February 2020
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Arlington Flying Blind in Planning for Critical Infrastructure, ARLNow, Peter Rousselot, January 27, 2021
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Sample Answers, Missing Middle Housing Survey, Suzanne Sundburg, November 2020
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Letter to Arlington County Board about Missing Middle Scope and Timeline, John Ausink, September, 2020
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Opticos Design - Definitions and Illustrations of Missing Middle Housing
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Missing Middle Duplex Affordability in Arlington - July 2020 Analysis by Dr. Jon Huntley and Kody Carmody
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Minneapolis' Residential Upzoning Risks Unintended Consequences, Alissa Luepke Pier, The Planning Report, June 17, 2019
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Blanket Upzoning A Blunt Instrument Won't Solve the Affordable Housing Crisis, The Planning Report, Dr. Michael Storper, UCLA, March 15, 2019